Thursday, June 30, 2011

B1G Position Rankings: Running Back

1. Michigan State: The big three, or three headed monster of Edwin Baker, Le'Veon Bell, and Larry Caper is as good of a set of running backs as you will find in the country.  Baker is a burner, Caper a slasher, and Bell a 237 lb. bruiser.  Sparty comes at you relentlessly in the offensive backfield.  All three backs are capable of earning All B1G honors.

2. Wisconsin: Montee Ball and James White are the best 1-2 punch in the B1G if not the country.  I had a tough time choosing between Michigan State and Wisconsin for the top spot in the B1G rankings, but ultimately it came down to three backs being better than two.  White provides breakaway speed, while Ball is a good all-purpose back.  While neither are giants they both are over 200 lbs. so they should be easily able to handle splitting caries.  Both backs should be given 20-25 touches a game in Wisconsin's run heavy offense.

3. Penn State:  Silas Redd and Stephfon Green provide the Nittany Lions with a nice safety valve for the unsettled QB situation in State College.  Redd runs as hard as any back in the conference and packs a punch at 201 lbs.  Green is a veteran back who has accumulated 1087 rushing yards in his career.  Green has always had great potential and look for him to have his best season as a Nittany Lion this year sharing carries with Redd.  I think Silas Redd will be one of the breakout players in the B1G this year.  Expect big things from Penn State's running back committee this year.

4. Michigan:  Brady Hoke has some nice pieces to work with this year at running back.  Michael Cox, Vincent Smith, and Michael Shaw all have good potential.  If Hoke wants to transform Michigan back to a pro-style set it all starts with the running game and a nice trio of backs may help him accomplish that in year 1.

5. Ohio State: The Buckeyes are due to find that next great back and what better year than 2011?  They must replace their Head Coach and starting QB this year so expect the Buckeyes to rely heavily on the running game.  New Head Coach Luke Fickell will find a nice set of backs to choose from in Jaamal Berry, Jordan Hall, Dan Herron, and Carlos Hyde.  Herron has been solid if unspectacular, and Berry and Hyde have All B1G potential. 

6. Minnesota:  Most people will find it surprising to find the Gophers in the upper half of the power rankings given their recent struggles on the ground, but new offensive coordinator Matt Limegrover loves to run the ball and it shows.  Limegrover's Northern Illinois offenses were always among the best in the MAC at running the football and he will have tremendous depth and talent to work with at Minnesota. Senior Duanne Bennett provides great leadership and experience while a group of talented redshirt freshman backs will give the Gophers plenty of weaponry in the offensive backfield.  The three redshirt freshman backs: LaMonte Edwards, Devon Wright, and Donnell Kirkwood were all highly regarded recruits with plenty of potential.  I made a bold statement earlier in my blog that the Gophers would have a top 5 rushing offense and this set of backs is one of the reasons for my optimism. 

7. Nebraska:  Rex Burkhead provides the Huskers with a workmanlike option at running back, but true freshman Aaron Green provides Big Red with that "home run" threat.  Look for Green to emerge as the feature back by seasons end after splitting carries with Burkhead to open the season.

8. Iowa: Marcus Coker will be the B1G's leading rusher this year in my opinion.  However, Coker can't get hurt otherwise the Hawkeyes are in big trouble.  Coker can certainly handle the beating of a full workload at 230 lbs, but it is essential for the Hawkeyes to build depth at the position so he doesn't wear down.  With the departure of Adam Robinson the Hawks are incredibly thin at the position and will have to hope that someone like RS Freshman De'Andre Johnson can emerge.

9. Purdue: Ralph Bolden was off to a promising start in his college football career before a devastating knee injury last spring took away his 2010 season.  It usually takes running backs 2 years before they are up to full speed so look for solid but unspectacular numbers from Bolden this year.  Reggie Pegram and Akeem Shavers are talented young backs that could spell and eventually replace Bolden as the starter by seasons end.

10. Illinois: Jason Ford provides the Illini with a nice big option (literally at 235 lbs.) at running back.  However, Ford ran into trouble with the law this off season and needs to avoid such circumstances in the future.  The departure of Mikel Leshoure was a crippling blow to the Illini as he accounted for over 1/2 of their  rushing offense.  Their isn't much depth behind Ford so he needs to not only stay out of trouble, but stay healthy.

11. Indiana: Darius Willis has a ton of talent, but he hasn't lived up to all of his potential yet.  With new head coach Kevin Wilson and a deep and talented receiving corp returning the Hoosiers figure to throw it a heck of a lot more than they run it.   There isn't much depth behind Willis so he will need to find a way to be more consistent.

12. Northwestern:  The Wildcats are just flat bad at the running back position.  Mike Trumpy would make a nice back... at South Dakota State, not at a B1G school.  Jacob Schmidt has been known to contribute from time to time but not in a significant way.  Adonis Smith has some talent and ability and will need to step up his game for the Wildcats to take some pressure off of quarterback Dan Persa.

Monday, June 27, 2011

B1G position rankings: Quarterbacks

1. Michigan State: The Spartans return Senior captain Kirk Cousins who will be entering his 3rd year as the starter.  It seems like Cousins has been the QB for MSU since the Reagan administration.

2. Northwestern: Dan Persa is great, as long as he can stay healthy.  I’m still not sold that he is 100% healthy after suffering a torn Achilles last year after throwing the game winning TD pass against Iowa.  Evan Watkins was serviceable as his backup last year and should be solid if Persa goes down.
3. Michigan:  Have you ever heard the expression “trying to fit a square peg through a round hole”?  Denard Robinson is an electric athlete, and he’s also about 5-10, and about to be turned into a drop back passer in a pro-style attack.  I think Hoke and the Wolverines offensive staff are smart enough to utilize DRob’s athleticism, but I worry about a little bit about them trying to turn Robinson into something he’s not just to prove a point.  Will Hoke and company try to turn him into a prototypical Michigan drop-back pocket passer just to prove that they are going to run a “Michigan” offense?  Devin Gardener is a talented backup and may be better suited to Michigan’s new scheme.
4. Wisconsin:  Jon Budmayr was about to turn into the next great Badgers: game managing, efficient, never makes mistakes, makes a few plays on third and long, plucky quarterback, but along came Russell Wilson to give the Badgers arguably their best athlete at quarterback maybe ever.  Wilson under center makes UW the B1G favorite with a bullet, in my opinion.
5. Illinois: When Nathan Scheelhaase was named the starting quarterback for the Illini last year at this time I have to admit that I snickered a bit.  I don’t know if it was because of his name or the fact that he was going to be the starting qb for Illinois that made him such an easy target, but I was wrong.  Scheelhaase is extremely talented and now that Ron Zook isn’t allowed to screw up the offense, look for Scheelhaase to put up good numbers in second year offensive coordinator Paul Petrino’s offense.

6. Nebraska: Taylor Martinez must stay healthy.  Even when Martinez is healthy he is limited as a passer.  The Huskers don't have much depth after Martinez so he must not only remain healthy, but effective.
7. Penn State: Both Matt McGloin and Robert Bolden are capable of being All B1G quarterbacks, but as the old saying goes “if you have two quarterbacks, you don’t have any”.  McGloin and Bolden will prevent each other from getting into a rhythm and developing chemistry with their WR/TE’s.  Look for both to play significantly this year, which means that neither will assert themselves as “the guy”, and will equal average numbers in the passing game.
8. Iowa: James Vandenberg looked great in the Horseshoe two years ago almost leading the Hawkeyes to a road victory in a game that had Big Ten championship implications.  The trouble is we haven’t seen him play in two years.  A.J. Darby and John Wienke will provide the Hawkeyes with capable backups.
9. Minnesota: This is the one team that could absolutely sky rocket up the rankings.  MarQueis Gray was the number 2 rated dual threat QB recruit in the country behind Terrelle Pryor as a senior in High School.  Minnesota beat out Oregon for his services and now will feature him in an offense that is tailor made for his skills as a quarterback.
10. Ohio State:  I can’t put Ohio State any lower than 10th can I?!  Joe Bauserman will be able to get the job done for the Buckeyes but lookout for freshman Braxton Miller to make a run at playing time.  Look for Miller to be the starter by the end of the year.
11. Purdue: Rob Henry was average at best for the Boilermakers after starter Robert Marve went down with an injury.  Henry can run a little but he can’t hit the broad side of a barn as a passer.  The Boilermakers better hope that Marve can play up to the hype they generated for him after they announced he was transferring from Miami (FL) aka the “U”.
12. Indiana:  I don’t know if it’s going to be Dusty Kiel or Edwin Wright-Baker under center for the Hoosiers, but I will say this, whoever gets the job will put up solid numbers throwing to a good set of receivers in a passing friendly offense.  New Head Coach Kevin Wilson will have the Hoosiers higher in the QB power rankings by the end of the season.

Sunday, June 19, 2011

B1G schedule analysis: Penn State

Games in which Penn State will be heavily favored:
Indiana State
@Temple
Eastern Michigan
@Indiana
Purdue
Illinois

Games in which Penn State will be a heavy underdog:
Alabama

Favorable match-up games:
Iowa
@Northwestern
Nebraska

Unfavorable match-up games:
@Ohio State
@Wisconsin

Summary:
PSU has had a recent history of following up a disappointing season with a good one.  I expect that trend to continue this year.  Look for Rob Boldon or Matt McGloin to become a leader at the quarterback position and quietly put up a solid year for the Nittany Lions.  Silas Redd will become one of the best running backs in the B1G if not the country and the Nitts defense will be staunch. 

The Nitts have a favorable schedule, getting Alabama at home this year and facing what look to be re-building Ohio State and Wisconsin teams on the road.  With those three games being the most difficult on their schedule, I look for Penn State to be the surprise winner of the Leaders Division and win 10 games in route to the inaugural B1G conference championship game in Indianapolis.

B1G schedule analysis: Northwestern

Games in which Northwesten will be heavily favored:
Eastern Illinois
Rice

Games in which Northwestern will be a heavy underdog:
@Nebraska

Favorable match-up games:
@Army
Michigan
@Indiana
Minnesota

Unfavorable match-up games:
@Boston College
@Illinois
@Iowa
Penn State
Michigan State

Summary:
Northwestern will rely heavily upon Senior Quarterback Dan Persa, who is recovering from a torn Achilles.  Read the previous sentence and make sure it resonates.  The Wildcats, who lack a running game, from anyone not named Dan Persa and have a suspect defense that was absolutely torched late in the year will rely upon a quarterback recovering from a torn Achilles.  I have three words for the Wildcats this year: Pack A Lunch.

The Wildcats schedule is loaded with games with teams that they match-up very evenly against so the Wildcats are going to have to depend on luck and health to return to a bowl game.  They do have an elite coach and a quirky offense that always seems to produce quarterbacks who become statistical superstars.  Persa, Mike Kafka, and C.J. Bacher all blossomed under current offensive coordinator Mick McCall.  However, the Wildcats lack play makers on defense and will rely on something called Mike Trumpy at tailback.  Pat Fitzgerald is one of the best young coaches in college football and he will work his magic and get the Wildcats back to a bowl game once again, by patching holes on his injury riddled team with the next set of out-of-nowhere offensive stars.  Northwestern's dominance of Iowa will continue and ultimately be the reason why they go bowling after finishing with 6 wins.

Wednesday, June 15, 2011

B1G schedule analysis: Indiana

Games in which Indiana will be a heavy favorite:
South Carolina State

Games in which Indiana will be a heavy underdog:
Penn State
@Wisconsin
@Iowa
@Ohio State
@Michigan State

Favorable match-up games:
@Ball State
@North Texas
Purdue

Unfavorable match-up games:
Virginia
Illinois
Northwestern

Summary:

Indiana went out and hired an offensive minded coach, despite the fact that their defense has been atrocious for the last 20 years.  In my opinion the hiring of Kevin Wilson was a head scratcher.  Wilson doesn't have any head coaching experience, so it's yet to be seen whether or not he is able to turn around a program or not.  Minnesota hired a proven head coach in Jerry Kill who has won at every stop, and the Hoosiers hired a guy who has been an OL coach or Offensive Coordinator everywhere he has been.  The Hoosiers got it done offensively but couldn't stop a Pop Warner football team from scoring.  It sure does sound like more of the same for IU, unless Wilson has a little of that Mike Leach mad scientist in him.

As far as the schedule is concerned, the B1G road slate is brutal.  IU faces Iowa, Ohio State, Wisconsin, and Michigan State on the road (arguably the top 4 teams in the conference).   Non-Conference match ups on the road against North Texas and Ball State aren't layups and they play a Virginia team at home that will be one of the most improved in the country.  All in all it's likely the Hoosiers only win 3 games this year, unless Wilson has a little bit of mad scientist in him.

Sunday, June 12, 2011

B1G schedule analysis - Michigan State

Games in which Michigan State will be heavily favored:
Youngstown State
Florida Atlantic
Central Michigan
Michigan
Minnesota
Indiana

Games in which Michigan State will be a heavy underdog:
none

Favorable match-up games:
Wisconsin
@Northwestern

Unfavorable match-up games:
@Notre Dame
@Ohio State
@Nebraska
@Iowa

Summary:
Sparty will face murderers row on the road with games @ Northwestern, Notre Dame, Ohio State, Nebraska, and Iowa.  While Michigan State easily boasts the best set of offensive skill position talent in the conference, their defense will once again be a question mark.  They have some talented players on defense, and one potential All-American in William Gholston, but I don't trust their secondary to stop anyone in passing situations. 

If the Spartans take care of business at home, including a date with potential conference favorite Wisconsin, and split the brutal road schedule, I think the season will be deemed a success.  I'm sure MSU fans will only consider the season a success with a Legends Division Championship and a spot in the first ever B1G conference championship game in Indy, but I believe that the road schedule is too big of a gauntlet for the Spartans to overcome unscathed.  I also worry about the Spartans inability to put back-back great seasons together historically.  At the end of the day I see Michigan State winning eight games, which would be a tremendous disappointment with their fan base.

Saturday, June 11, 2011

B1G schedule analysis - Michigan

Games in which Michigan will be heavily favored:
Western Michigan
Eastern Michigan
Purdue

Games in which Michigan will be a heavy underdog:
@Michigan State
@Iowa

Favorable match-up games:
San Diego State
Minnesota

Unfavorable match-up games:
Notre Dame
@Northwestern
@Illinois
Nebraska
Ohio State

Summary:
Michigan will have a successful, experienced NFL coordinator in Greg Mattison taking over the defense this fall.  Mattison, who resigned as the Defensive Coordinator for the NFL's Baltimore Ravens, will have his work cut out for him.  He will take over a defense that finished last in virtually every category in the Big Ten in 2010.  Former Michigan head coach Rich Rodriguez recruited small defensive players that had academic and health issues.  Michigan's defense last year was to be quite honest - atrocious.  Mattison will easily have the biggest coaching challenge of his career. 

Brady Hoke will take over the reigns as Head Coach for the Wolverines after a bunch of so-so years with Ball State and one great year.  Hoke had a rough start at San Diego State going 4-8 in year one, followed by a remarkable turnaround in year two, going 9-4 and leading the Aztecs to their first bowl game since 1998.  Hoke has Michigan ties, being a defensive assistant for the Wolverines from 1995-2002 coaching mostly the defensive line.

Michigan's offense was one of the best in the country last year racking up pinball stats, with Richrod's wide open, zone read spread offense.  Denard Robinson ran into injury problems as the season progressed with such a heavy workload.  Robinson, who is a small qb took quite a bit of punishment and Michigan's offense wasn't nearly as strong down the stretch as it was early in the season.  Robinson's numbers will go way down this year running more of a balanced pro-style offense under Brady Hoke, but the offense will still be one of the most dangerous in the league.

The schedule is... well it's brutal for the Wolverines.  While the B1G may not have a national championship contender, the one thing the league does have is tremendous balance.  Only Indiana and Purdue look to be complete pushovers and Indiana isn't on the schedule.  After the Wolverines play their little directional brothers (Eastern and Western Michigan) in their own back yard, it gets excruciating from there.  They play what looks to be the best Notre Dame team in maybe the last 6 years.  Their B1G schedule is really difficult, outside of the Purdue and Minnesota games at home, the Wolverines may be underdogs in the rest of their match-ups.  I will give the Wolverines the benefit of the doubt and say they eek out 6 wins to become bowl eligible, but it won't be easy or pretty.

Sunday, June 5, 2011

B1G schedule analysis - Purdue

Games in which Purdue will be heavy favorites:
Middle Tennessee State
Southeast Missouri State

Games in which Purdue will be heavy underdogs:
Notre Dame
@Penn State
@Wisconsin
Ohio State

Favorable match-up games:
Minnesota
Illinois
@Indiana

Unfavorable match-up games:
@Rice
@Michigan
Iowa

Summary:
Purdue got bit by the injury bug last year, losing starting QB Robert Marve, #1 WR Keith Smith, and starting tailback Ralph Bolden.  Both Marve and Bolden return, however neither is guaranteed their starting positions.  Purdue doesn't have many games on the schedule in which you can pencil in a W right now.  They will definitely win some of their match-up games, but I just can't see Purdue improving upon last year.  I don't like their QB situation and although they return Bolden at RB, he has been injury prone throughout his career.  Purdue always seems to find nice receivers but I don't see any potential stars out wide on this roster.  The Boilermakers also have some nice pieces defensively with DT Kawann Short, and LB Dwayne Beckford, but depth is a major concern, and B1G sack leader Ryan Kerrigan will be sorely missed on a defense that despite his presence last year quite frankly wasn't very good.  If Purdue continues to struggle with injuries they have almost zero chance to go to a bowl game.

The Boilermakers have a difficult schedule this year.  They have one of the most difficult schedules in the B1G in my opinion.  They face the best Notre Dame team in the last 4 or 5 years and must play a dangerous Rice team on the road.  I see the Boilermakers winning 5 games at the most this year and may only win 3 or 4 if everything unravels.

B1G schedule analysis - Wisconsin

Games in which Wisconsin will be a heavy favorite:
UNLV
Northern Illinois
South Dakota
Indiana
Purdue
@Minnesota

Games in which Wisconsin will be a heavy underdog:
none

Favorable match-up games:
Oregon State
Nebraska
@Illinois
Penn State

Unfavorable match-up games:
@Michigan State
@Ohio State

Summary:
Wisconsin will only play four "true" road games and two of them (@Minnesota, and @Illinois) are very winnable.  That will come in handy for a team breaking in a new quarterback after the departure of one of the most efficient passers in the history of the program - Scott Tolzein.  Oregon State and Northern Illinois could pose problems for the Badgers in the non-conference portion of the schedule.  However, Oregon State is a perennial slow starter and Northern Illinois will be breaking in a new coach, who funny, just happened to be Wisconsin's defensive coordinator last year in Dave Doeren.   The home B1G slate will also present it's challenges when national powers Penn State and Nebraska come to Madtown.   Even though Nebraska and Wisconsin play in different divisions of the B1G, they could become big rivals due to their historically similar offensive philosophies and school colors.   Both teams have been called Big Red before, although the name suits the Huskers a little better.  Wisconsin Head Coach Brett Bielema publicly campaigned to make a Nebraska vs. Wisconsin game an annual tradition at the end of the season, kind of like Ohio State and Michigan.

Wisconsin will be rebuilding this year with the departures of two year starting quarterback Scott Tolzein, offensive tackle Gabe Carimi, DE JJ Watt, and workhorse running back John Clay.  They still have valuable assets in the offensive backfield in Montee Ball and James White along with one of the best offensive lines in the B1G, but the key will be the Badgers new quarterback making key 3rd down passes, something Tolzein did with regularity.  Look for Bucky to rebuild with a servicable eight win season.

Wednesday, June 1, 2011

B1G schedule analysis - Iowa

Games in which Iowa will be a heavy favorite:
Tennessee Tech
Louisiana-Monroe
Indiana
Michigan

Games in which Iowa will be a heavy underdog:
None

Favorable match-up games:
@Iowa State
Pittsburgh
Northwestern
@Minnesota
Michigan State
@Purdue

Unfavorable match-up games:
@Penn State
@Nebraska

Summary:
Most people will look at Iowa's schedule and pencil in road games against Penn State and Nebraska, and home games against Michigan State and Northwestern as losses.  But as Lee Corso likes to say, "not so fast, my friend!"  The Hawkeyes absolutely thrive under the radar and that will be the case this year.  The Hawkeyes have great personel on offense and the plucky Norm Parker always seems to find the next out-of-nowhere superstar on defense.  Expect more of the same from the Hawkeyes this year. 

Iowa will find a way to win a game they shouldn't early in the year (@Penn State) and ride the momentum to 10 wins with one slip up at home against a team like Michigan State or dare I say Northwestern... again.