Week 13 Picks

USC 27, Notre Dame 24: Everyone and their brother think it’s a foregone conclusion that Notre Dame will clinch a BCS National Championship game birth with a win over a USC team that has managed to lose 4 games and will be without it’s starting quarterback, Matt Barkley.    Think again!  USC still has the best wide receivers in the country and will be playing with absolutely nothing to lose.  Lane Kiffin will be back next year according to USC AD Pat Haden.  USC will be replacing Barkley with former 5 star recruit Max Wittek, who is big (6-4, 235lbs) and has a huge arm.  Kiffin is a coach playing with house money.  He knows no one is expecting him to win with a freshman quarterback and disappointing team, but Haden said he will be back and Kiffin will construct his best game plan as a coach in his young career.  USC will expose Notre Dame’s defensive weakness, their defensive backs, with talented wide receivers Marquise Lee and Robert Woods and Wittek has plenty of arm to get them the ball.  A loose, talented USC team beats a less talented, tight Notre Dame team with all the pressure in the world on it. 

Nebraska 31, Iowa 17: Iowa will put up a good fight on senior day in Iowa City against one of their biggest rivals, but ultimately Taylor Martinez and the rest of the Nebraska offense proves to be too much for the Hawkeyes.  The regression of James Vandenberg continues as he completes less than 50% of his passes and is picked twice, one of which is returned for a touchdown in the second half thwarting any ideas of an Iowa comeback.

Northwestern 23, Illinois 10: On paper this should be a blowout for the Wildcats.  However, this is rivalry week and the Illini are playing with nothing to lose.  The Illini dig deep and play with pride and effort, keeping the game close until Venrick Mark rips off a long touchdown run late in the second half to ice the game for the Cats.

Indiana 38, Purdue 30: The Old Oaken Bucket game should be a shootout in West Lafayette.  Danny Hope is coaching for his job and the Boilermakers are playing for a bowl game.  Purdue will come up short and we will see the Danny Hope era at Purdue come to an end.  Robert Marve looks great in his last game as a collegian, but is out dueled be Indiana true freshman quarterback Nate Sudfield. 

Ohio State 20, Michigan 16: Ohio State wasted a perfect season this year by not self-imposing a one year bowl ban last year.  Instead the Buckeyes went to a bowl game last year after a 6-6 season with interim coach Luke Fickell.  That was a huge mistake as Urban Meyer has the Buckeyes unbeaten and with the way things are shaking out this year in college football the Buckeyes would have been playing in the BCS National Championship game.  Ohio State and Notre Dame are the only unbeaten BCS teams left.   Ohio State beats Michigan behind the legs of who else but Braxton Miller. 

Michigan State 17, Minnesota 9: Outside of a breakout performance against Purdue the Minnesota offense has been putrid in Big Ten play.  Aside from the Purdue game, which the Gophers scored 44 points in they have scored: 13, 13, 13, 13, 17, and 14 points in conference games.  That simply isn’t good enough.  The Gophers have a true freshman quarterback in Philip Nelson, have gone through 5 different starting rotations along the offensive line due to injury and just lost their most productive wide receiver.  Now the Gophers are going up against what is arguably the conference’s top defense in Michigan State.  The Spartans are pissed and desperate, needing a win to become bowl eligible.  The Gophers on the other hand already have become bowl eligible and most people are slapping them on the back for doing so.  I will go with the urgency factor here and pick Michigan State as Minnesota will be held to single digit points for the first time all year.

Penn State 24, Wisconsin 21: The Nittany Lions aren’t going to a bowl game so they will be extra fired up for their last game of the year.  An emotional Nittany Lions team playing in honor of injured senior linebacker Michael Mauti gets out of the gate quickly building a 14-0 lead at halftime and will hang on at the end preserving a victory on senior day in Happy Valley.  Bill O’Brien locks up coach of the year honors in the B1G with the win.

Last Week: 5-1, Overall: 72-18 (.800)

B1G Picks: Week 12

Penn State 41, Indiana 17: The Nitts will control this game from start to finish.  The Indiana balloon is deflated after last week’s drubbing at the hands of Wisconsin.  Penn State will use a balanced offense, rushing for over 200 yards and passing for more than 200 yards in the win.  Bill O’Brien doesn’t remind me of a coach that will overlook anyone or allow his team to do so.  Penn State will be sharp and ready to finish its season strong. 

Michigan 38, Iowa 10: I can’t believe how bad Iowa is this year.   They are the biggest dumpster fire west of the New York Jets.  Iowa has a positive turnover margin and has a losing record, which is truly remarkable.  Games left with Michigan and Nebraska make it all but certain that the Hawkeyes will miss a bowl game for the first time since 2007.   I give the Hawkeyes about a .00002 percent chance of winning this game.  Devin Gardener meanwhile gives the Wolverines a quarterback that can run and throw and a bright future at the position heading into the 2013 season. 

Michigan State 27, Northwestern 21: The Wildcats can be exposed by running the ball up the middle and a heavy dose of Le’Veon Bell should do the trick.  Northwestern can be pushed around easily up front, and that has been the case for the last decade and a ½.  The last time Northwestern had a staunch interior defense was when their head coach, Pat Fitzgerald earned All-America honors playing linebacker in the mid 90’s.  The Cats have gotten away with mediocre defense all year and Bell, an improving Andrew Maxwell and the rest of the Spartans will expose them on Saturday. 

Purdue 23, Illinois 17: This game could be even uglier than the Iowa/Purdue game last week.  Any game involving the Boilermakers has a chance to be hideous, but if you throw in the Illini it all but makes it a guarantee.  Robert Marve and the Boilermakers are at least playing with a little emotion and determination, which should get them over the top against a hopeless Illinois team.

Nebraska 45, Minnesota 13: This is just about the worst matchup for Minnesota in the entire conference.  The Cornhuskers can run the ball at you about 7 different directions with about 6 different people and that is easily Minnesota’s biggest defensive flaw.  Meanwhile the Gophers will have the Huskers mystique and Memorial stadium to work against, not to mention the fact that Minnesota hasn’t beaten Nebraska since 1960.  The average margin of victory for the Huskers in their 15 game winning streak is 32 points.  So I will go with the average margin of victory in this year’s slaughtering. 

Ohio State 34, Wisconsin 24: Urban Meyer will dissect Bret Bielema like a fetal pig.  This is a huge mismatch coaching wise.  Similar talent on the field, but I give the edge to the Pontiff (Meyer) and Braxton Miller over Bielema and something called Curt Phillips.  Meyer will be extra motivated to win this one.  If you remember,  Bielema, in a jealous rage said what Urban Meyer did to get a kid to de-commit from Wisconsin and sign with Ohio State was illegal.  That simply isn’t true and Meyer remembers those comments and will want to destroy Bielema and show him who his Daddy will be in the Big Ten’s Leaders Division.

Last Week: 4-1, Overall: 67-17 (.797)

B1G Picks: Week 11

Wisconsin 33, Indiana 24: The Hoosiers have become a fashionable team to pick the last few weeks, in fact they have become just plain fashionable.   However, it’s almost midnight for Cinderella and the Badgers will provide a little taste of reality for the Hoosiers.  Indiana hasn’t arrived quite yet folks, remember this is a team that lost to Navy and Ball State, and has gotten absolutely trucked by the Badgers the last two years.  I think Indiana is a nice story and I would love it if the Hoosiers won on Saturday, but I just don’t think it’s happening.  Montee Ball, James White, and company will run like deer in an open field against a susceptible IU defense. 

Iowa 24, Purdue 16: This looks like a hideous game on paper and I think it will live up to such.   Danny Hope’s job is on life support and a loss to the struggling Hawkeyes will probably cause Purdue AD Morgan Burke to pull the plug and sign the death certificate.   Iowa has at least had its moments this year in victories over Minnesota and Michigan State.  Purdue meanwhile only has wins over directional schools, Marshall, and a moral victory over Notre Dame.  James Vandenberg and the Iowa receivers will have their best game of the year against a horrendous Boilermaker secondary and get one step closer to bowl eligibility.  Purdue will be eliminated from bowl eligibility and will only be able to look forward to the Old Oaken Bucket game with Indiana as their “bowl game”. 

Michigan 27, Northwestern 21: Brady Hoke should be fired for putting Russell Bellamy into the Nebraska game instead of Devin Gardner, of course I’m kidding, sort of…. That was a huge blunder in the Michigan season because it could cost the Wolverines the Legends division crown and a trip to Indianapolis for the B1G championship game.   Bellamy was absolutely awful against Nebraska and Gardener looked really good against a better than advertised Minnesota secondary last weekend.  As it is the Wolverines will go into battle with a combination of Gardener and Denard Robinson.  Gardener will be able to throw the ball and Robinson will run it for 10-15 plays and that will be enough to get past an average Northwestern defense.

Minnesota 31, Illinois 10: The worst team always seems to win, at least if we go back the last 4 meetings of this series.  So if that trend continues the Illini will win, but not so fast my friend!  The Gophers are looking to become bowl eligible for the first time in 3 years.   They will get it done against an Illinois team that lacks an identity on offense.  The Gophers will shut down the Illini and score early and often against a team that struggles against teams that can spread the field.  The Gophers will come out fired up and dominate the line of scrimmage from the get go against an uninspired, lethargic Illinois team.  Philip Nelson will continue to impress by throwing for two touchdowns and running for another. 

Nebraska 28, Penn State 24: The Huskers are playing with a lot of confidence right now and they will ride said confidence and a home field advantage to victory over the surging Nittany Lions.  The Huskers are far from perfect, they are flawed in many areas, but they feel like a team that is destined for Indy.   Taylor Martinez will continue his Jekyll and Hyde ways, however the Huskers running tandem of Burkhead, Martinez, and Abdullah will pile up over 250 yards and grind out the clock in the 4th quarter to preserve the victory and get the Huskers one step closer to a Legends division crown.

Last Week: 4-1, Overall: 63-16 (.797)