Sunday, August 28, 2011

B1G predictions: Week 1

Wisconsin 41, UNLV 13: The Badgers will get off to a slow start in this one as Russell Wilson and the Badgers offense get acclimated with one another.  The 1st half butterflies will turn into second half fireworks as the offensive line and the running back team of Montee Ball, James White, and Melvin Gordon will ware down the much smaller UNLV defense.

Michigan State 55, Youngstown State 7: The BTN opener will be rather dull as Kirk Cousins and the Spartans offense will march down the field like a hot knife through butter.  Youngstown State is a very nice FCS program, but isn't anywhere near competing with a B1G team, much less a B1G title contender like MSU.  This one will be over by the end of the 1st quarter.

Northwestern 30, Boston College 24: This game is a tough one to call, BC and Northwestern are both private institutions in major cities, elite academic institutions, and struggle to gain much attention in their respective media markets.  Both schools have had moderate success the last 10-15 years, going to bowl games, and fielding respectable teams, but neither program has ever inflicted fear in it's opponents.  Dan Persa will heat up in the second half and lead the Wildcats to a come from behind victory on the road.  Montel Harris will rush for over 150 yards in the loss for the Eagles.

Ohio State 38, Akron 6: The young running backs will go wild for the Buckeyes as Jaamal Berry and a host of other backs will combine for over 300 yards rushing.  The Buckeye QB's will have a nondescript day throwing the ball.  The D will be dominant, at least for this week.

Penn State 52, Indiana State 0: The Nittany Lions will be hosting a glorified scrimmage in front of 100,000+ people at Beaver Stadium.  This will give both Rob Bolden and Matt McGloin an opportunity to work out the kinks before the real competition starts against Alabama.  Joe Paterno and his staff will treat this like an NFL preseason game and give both quarterbacks work.  Bolden will likely play the first half, and McGloin the second.

Iowa 44, Tennessee Tech 13: Marcus Coker may tote the rock 30+ times and not have so much as a scratch on his uniform or a bead of sweat on his skin.  This will be a great opportunity for James Vandenberg and his young receivers to play catch in the first half and build up chemistry before the B1G season.  This game will be over by halftime.

Purdue 27, Middle Tennessee 24: The Boilermakers better be careful here.  The Blue Raiders are capable of pulling of the upset on the road and will make this interesting until the bitter end.  MTSU quarterback Logan Kilgore will hook up with receiver Sancho McDonald for two 1st half touchdowns to give the Blue Raiders the lead at half time, but Caleb TerBush and the Boilermakers offense will find themselves in the second half to eke out the W at home.

USC 31, Minnesota 13: Junior quarterback MarQueis will be making his first start under center for the maroon and gold and it will show in the 1st half as the Gopher offense will struggle moving the ball and will commit two early turnovers spotting the Trojans a 3 touchdown 1st half lead.  The Gophers will play better both offensively and defensively in the 2nd half, but it will be too little too late.  Matt Barkley will throw for over 300 yards for the Trojans.

Michigan 38, Western Michigan 17: Denard Robinson will have the most efficient performance of his career completing over 75% of his passes and Michael Shaw will run for over 150 yards for the Wolverines offense.  The D will bend but not break in an easy win for the maize and blue.

Nebraska 52, Chattanooga 0: The Huskers D will give up fewer than 150 yards of offense and Taylor Martinez will find himself against an over matched Chattanooga team.

Illinois 45, Arkansas State 20: Nathan Scheelhaase will put up eye opening stats against Arkansas State and have the country taking notice.  This could be the start of an under the radar Heisman campaign for Scheelhaase. 

Indiana 30, Ball State 21: IU and Ball State will trade punches for most of the game before a late IU drive engineered by Edward Wright-Baker ends things in Indianapolis.  IU will look eerily similar to last year's team, giving up a bunch of yards defensively and moving the ball through the air offensively.


Monday, August 22, 2011

B1G power rankings

1. Wisconsin:  The Badgers have an elite offensive line, a veteran quarterback, and three capable backs if you include true freshman Melvin Gordon who has passed the eyeball test so far in fall camp.  They also have a go-to receiver in Nick Toon and playmakers on defense like linebacker Chris Borland and cornerback Antonio Fenelus.  The Badgers will take advantage of a conference rebuilding at the top.  Ohio State, Michigan, and Penn State will all be a shadow of their former selves this year.

2. Michigan State: The Spartans have as much offensive skill position talent as anyone in the country and their defensive personnel isn't too shabby either.  William Gholston will terrorize quarterbacks in the B1G this year and Trenton Robinson is one of the best safeties in the conference if not the nation.  The schedule is brutal with conference road trips to: Columbus, Lincoln, Iowa City, and Evanston.  However, this is a veteran team that should win at least two of these games and I don't see the Spartans losing more than one home game this year. 

3. Iowa: The Hawkeyes must be licking their chops right now, most people are picking them to finish 3rd or 4th in the Legends Division.  The Hawkeyes are likely sending thank you notes to media members right now.  The Hawkeyes flourish when they are not in the spotlight and the spotlight will shine brightly upon their neighbors to the west in Lincoln leaving them in the dark, which they are perfectly fine with.  While Nebraska will be busy searching for their identity on offense Iowa will know exactly what they are doing offensively.  The Hawkeyes will pound the rock with workhorse tailback Marcus Coker and a dominant offensive line and use play action passing from arguably the best pure passer in the conference in James Vandenburg.  Iowa will churn out two or three more superstars at linebacker and defensive line and boasts Shaun Prater and Micah Hyde in the secondary.  If you are in Vegas bet the over on the Hawkeyes.

4. Nebraska:  This team makes me nervous.  I just don't trust them a lick.  How can a team pound an inferior opponent on the road, only to lose to them three months later in a bowl game?  Well the Huskers did just that putting 50+ points on Washington in Seattle only to lose to them in the Holiday Bowl three months later.  If Taylor Martinez can stay healthy all bets are off and this team could legitimately put up double digit victories.  If Martinez plays like he did down the stretch last year when he was banged up Nebraska will be a pedestrian team and struggle to win 8 games.   The Blackshirt D will be for real, but the offense leaves a lot to be desired.  The Huskers must also replace leading rusher Roy Helu Jr.

5. Penn State: Rob Bolden should emerge from the unsettled qb situation in State College and become the quarterback that many expected him to become last year before Freshman inconsistency cost him his job midway through the 2010 season.  Bolden should be more mature and ready to lead a potent Nittany Lions offense with weapons like TB Silas Redd, and WR Derrik Moye.  Michael Mauti will lead the D for Linebacker U.  Penn State has a very favorable schedule early on, with a loaded Alabama team providing the only test in the non conference season.   Penn State could very easily be 8-1 or 9-0 heading into the last three games of the season.

6. Ohio State:  I'm not going to lie to you.  It feels pretty weird putting the Buckeyes this low in the power rankings...  However, given their tumultuous offseason and the fact that they will be breaking in a new (interim) Head Coach, a new QB, and new found apathy from the fan base.  Jaamal Berry should provide Buckeye nation with a little bit of excitement and a potential superstar, but the questions are too numerous for TOSU to be a legitimate factor in the B1G title chase.  After all they have to have a down year eventually and this seems like a pretty good year to have one.  Look for true freshman Braxton Miller to start at QB eventually for the Buckeyes.

7. Michigan:  The Wolverines are loaded offensively and not even Al Borges' vanilla scheme can slow it down.  As Gerry DiNardo from the BTN said, "you can take the quarterback out of the spread, but you can't take the spread out of the quarterback".  I couldn't agree with that statement more.  DRob will put up pin ball numbes, he won't have the highest score in the arcade like he did last year but he will be on the leaderboard.  Greg Mattison will help the Michigan defense improve dramatically.  They will still give up a bunch of yards, but unlike last year they will be able to make stops when they need them. 

8. Illinois: If the Illini can find replacements for Martez Wilson, Corey Liuget, and Clay Nurse on defense they could be very good.  The Illini have a great offensive line, and plenty of options at RB despite the loss of Mikel Leshoure.  Sophomore Nathan Sheelhaase will continue to improve upon a very intriguing freshman year at QB.  I still question Ron Zook's coaching ability and the Illinois program as a whole.  The Illini haven't put together back to back winning seasons since 90-91.  Ouch...

9. Minnesota: The Gophers will have one of the top 5 rushing offenses in the conference behind QB MarQueisGray and a stable of running backs.  DaJon McKnight and Eric Lair give them vertical weapons as well.  The Gophers also have some nice pieces defensively in safety Kim Royston and LB Gary Tinsley.  The key for the Gophers will be avoiding injuries because the team is probably among the thinnest in the B1G.  Improved special teams and a pass rush will be the key to whether Minnesota goes bowling or not.

10. Northwestern: The Wildcats have a really good QB and head coach, but they need help and they won't get much.  The running game is atrocious and the defense was beyond sieve like late in the year.  The Wildcats were  absolutely lit on fire by Illinois, Wisconsin, and a pedestrian Texas Tech team.  Dan Persa better not only be healthy, he better be superman.

11. Purdue:  Count me unimpressed with all the returning veterans for the Boilermakers.  When I think of Purdue I think of the saying "the good news is everyone returns, the bad news is everyone returns".  Rob Henry couldn't hit the broad side of a barn last year and Robert Mavre was too busy accepting lap dances at Miami strip clubs when he wasn't rehabbing various knee injuries.  Rob Bolden returns at RB following an ACL tear.  It usually takes running backs a couple of years to return to form after an ACL injury so look for Bolden to try to get his sea legs in 2011 and not much else.  The defense must replace Ryan Kerrigan at DE.

12. Indiana: I'm sure Kevin Wilson circled the October 8th tilt with Illinois on his schedule.  I'm sure he would love nothing more than to stick it to former Illini QB and current Indianapolis radio host Jack Trudeau after a heated exchange on the Zakk and Jack show.  Trudeau said that he was going to place a call to Ron Zook to run up the score on IU.  Fun stuff!  As far as the product on the field is concerned, well they are still a year or two away from being able to make a move up the standings.  They had a coup by landing a verbal commitment from Gunner Kiel, the brother of current Hoosiers QB Dusty.  The younger Kiel is considered one of the best QB recruits in the country.  The problem for Indiana in 2011 is they won't be able to stop anyone ever.

Saturday, August 6, 2011

5 consensus media opinions I disagree with

I like to disagree with the masses from time to time.  Why?  Because it's fun to generate my own opinion.  I disagree with most when it comes to 5 things in the upcoming college and even NFL seasons.  Will I be vindicated with all of my opinions?  Probably not, but I would be surprised if all of them are wrong.

1. Illinois is a team on the rise: The Illini haven't put back to back winning seasons together since 1989-90, are coached by Ron Zook, and lost their three best players to the NFL draft.  Do I need to say anymore?!  I do like QB Nathan Scheelhaase and believe he may lead the B1G in total offense.  They also return a very good offensive line, but I don't think they have a lot of weapons on the outside other than receiver A.J. Jenkins, who will be double teamed on a regular basis.  They also lost RB Mikel Leshoure who accounted for more than 1/2 of Illinois' rushing yards last year.  Illinois also lost playmakers Clay Nurse, Corey Liuget, and Martez Wilson on defense.  All of those losses coupled with their history, makes me seriously doubt Illinois this year.

2. Minnesota will finish last in the Legends Division: For those people who don't know or care much about the Minnesota program, and rightfully so, after all the Gophers haven't won a Big Ten Championship in over 40 years, they will just automatically right off this program.  They will see that the Gophers hired a coach from Northern Illinois, finished 3-9 last year, including a loss to FCS South Dakota at home and are competing in a Division with teams that have had much more success recently: Iowa, Nebraska, Northwestern, Michigan, Michigan State, and Nebraska.  What those people don't know is that the Gophers have arguably the conferences most athletic QB (with all apologies to Denard Robinson), hired a coach with a career winning percentage of .635, which would rank third in the conference behind only Bo Pelini, Joe Paterno, and Brett Beilema.  Tim Brewster landed some talented recruits and Jerry Kill will "coach em' up" in year 1.

3. Florida will struggle this year:  Paul Finebaum is without question the Bible when it comes to covering college football in the South.  His radio program is one of the most popular in the country and easily the most popular in the south.  He even fielded a call from the knucklehead Alabama fan who declared himself "Al from Dadeville" aka Harvey Updike who admitted on his program that he poured herbicide on the famous Toomer's Corner Oak trees on the campus of hated rival Auburn.  Now that we know how powerful Finebaum is and how much his opinion matters in the South, let's get to one of his sentiments about the SEC this year.... He said flat out that Florida will suck this year on his program after the Florida spring game.  With all due respect to the most powerful media man in the SEC, I am going to disagree.  In fact I believe Florida will win the mediocre SEC East.  Finebaum hates the hiring of Charlie Weis as Offensive Coordinator, and I absolutely love it.  Weis has been unbelievably successful as an offensive coordinator in both the NFL and college.  He was the offensive coordinator for the New England Patriots early in Tom Brady's career, and as a head coach was instrumental in the short revitalization of the Irish program, and last year helped the Kansas City Chiefs once anemic offense put up very good numbers, which helped the Chiefs make the playoffs for the first time in years.   Weiss has helped quarterbacks such as Tom Brady, Brady Quinn, and Matt Cassell, expect him to work wonders for the career of John Brantly.  The Gators have plenty of athletes and will have little trouble on either side of the ball.  Florida Head Coach Will Muschamp was quoted as saying he will let Charlie Weis handle the offense and he will handle the defense.  Given what Muschamp did at Texas with the Longhorns defense that sounds like a match made in heaven.

4. Tim Tebow will not make it as an NFL quarterback:  I have heard it all from both the media and scouts alike.  Tebow has an awkward throwing motion, he runs too much, he isn't accurate, he's sanctimonious, and my favorite recent one is he looks awful in practice.  When I look at a quarterback I want to know one thing.  Does he have that "it" quality?  Tebow does in spades.  I am a realist though, I understand that Tebow is not as polished of a passer as Kyle Orton right now, but guess what?  Not many QB's in their second year are as polished as a 6 or 7 year vet like Orton.  Does he need to work on his throwing mechanics?  Absolutely!  Does he need to work on his accuracy?  Absolutely!  Does he need to work on his footwork in the pocket?  You bet, but so do all young quarterbacks.  I want my quarterback to have that "it" quality, a strong work ethic, and to have that drive to not accept failure.  Put me in the camp that sees Tebow as a starting QB in the NFL.  Tebow won't ever be Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, Drew Brees, or Aaron Rodgers when it comes to throwing the football, but this guy will get it done and write a new chapter in the evolution of the quarterback in the NFL.

5. Iowa is not a Top 25 team: Go ahead and doubt Kirk Ferentz and Iowa, but I have read this book before.  Iowa enters a season of low expectations and crushes the competition.  The Hawkeyes are loaded offensively: James Vandenberg may be the best pure passer in the conference and has targets like: Keenan Davis, Marvin McNutt, and C.J. Fiedorowicz to throw to.  He has a workhorse tailback in Marcus Coker and a staunch offensive line.  The Hawkeyes will be strong defensively per usual and will contend for the Legends Division crown and a spot in the innaugural B1G Championship game in Indianapolis.

Wednesday, August 3, 2011

5 Breakout Defensive Players in the B1G

1. James Morris, LB, Iowa: The Hawkeyes have had no shortage of star linebackers under Kirk Ferentz.  Chad Greenway, Pat Angerer, and A.J. Edds have all been studs for the Hawkeyes.  Morris is a homegrown kid out of Solon, IA and will continue the tradition of great Iowa linebackers.  Morris is a terrific athlete, who helped his High School win three consecutive state championships as a linebacker and running back.  He recorded 70 tackles and made 6 starts at middle linebacker in his freshman year with the Hawkeyes.  The fact that Morris started as a freshman at Iowa is astounding.  Usually Ferentz likes to wait until his linebackers and lineman are juniors or seniors before starting, but Morris was too talented to leave off the field.  With a summer in the weight room look for big things from the young linebacker from Solon, IA.

2. Louis Nzegwu, DE, Wisconsin: Nzegwu has been solid if unspectacular his three years for the Badgers, but look for a significant breakthrough this year for the talented Nzegwu.  He boasts good size (6-4, 255) to go along with a good work ethic.  Nzegwu's stats have improved from year to year.  He has shown a knack for getting to the quarterback in his career and look for Nzegwu to get close to double digit sacks this year for the Badgers.

3. Keanon Cooper, LB, Minnesota: The speedy linebacker should be all over the field in Minnesota defensive coordinator Tracy Claeys' aggressive scheme.  Cooper is no giant at 6'-0", 212lbs and came to Minnesota as a safety prospect out of Dallas Skyline High School.  Cooper should be in the backfield often as Minnesota will try to manufacture a pass rush as the Gophers saw almost no production out of their front four in 2010.  Cooper is the type of outside linebacker that could sack a quarterback and cover a teams best receiver downfield.  He is undersized but he will make plays with his speed and athleticism.  Claeys' system is tailor made for the way Cooper plays and the Gophers will reap the benefits of this perfect marriage.  Cooper could become a poor mans Clay Matthews.

4. Akeem Spence, DL, Illinois: The Illini lost Corey Liuget to the NFL, but they return a future first round NFL draft choice in Spence.  Spence is beast in the trenches at 305lbs and growing.  He can be destructive as well.  Last year Spence recorded 45 tackles, including 4 tackles for loss and 1 sack.  Look for Spence to double his TFLs and sacks this year.  Spence is a star in the making and he will make All B1G this year.  Spence will continue to get better throughout his career at Illinois and may leave for the NFL draft after his junior year.  The good news for Illini fans is Spence is only a Sophomore, so he will be in Champaign for at least one more year after 2011.

5. Orhian Johnson, S, Ohio State: The Junior from St. Petersburg, FL has been injury prone early in his career, but has all the tools to be the next great Buckeye Safety.  He recorded 50 tackles last year in limited duty.  This year, as a full time starter his tackles could very well double.  Buckeyes head coach Luke Fickell absolutely loves the young man and thought so much of him that he invited Johnson to B1G media days in Chicago.   Johnson was a phenomenal athlete in High School where he played quarterback, safety, and was the star of the basketball team.  Johnson also played in the U.S. Army All-American Bowl.  Johnson will challenge for All B1G honors this year and possibly All American honors his senior year. 

Tuesday, August 2, 2011

5 Breakout Offensive Players in the B1G

1. MarQueis Gray, Minnesota: Gray possesses all the tools to be a superstar dual-threat QB.  New Minnesota offensive coordinator Matt Limegrover’s offense is tailor made for Gray’s talents.  Gray has tremendous size (6’4”, 245lbs), speed, and arm strength.  At Northern Illinois Limegrover’s offenses put up big numbers on the ground and Gray has the potential to rush for over 1,000 yards.  His rushing ability will keep defenses honest and leave elite pass catchers such as Da’Jon McKnight and Eric Lair open downfield.  Gray is one of three players that will compete to lead the B1G in total offense this year along with Illinois’ Nathan Scheelhaase and Michigan’s Denard Robinson.
2. Silas Redd, Penn State: Redd is a perfect blend of speed, power, and elusiveness.  He hits the hole without hesitation and can make people miss downfield.  With the Nitts QB situation still unsettled, they will rely heavily on the running game and that means Redd’s name will be called early and often with the graduation of Evan Royster.  He’s no giant at 5-10/201, but he runs hard and packs a punch when he hits the hole.  Look for Redd to compete for the B1G rushing crown with Montee Ball, Edwin Baker, and…..
3. Marcus Coker, Iowa: Coker is a big back and Iowa has almost no depth at the position so he will earn his scholarship this year with a heavy workload.  Look for Coker to get 30+ carries per game, which will = huge rushing numbers.  Coker could break Iowa’s single season rushing record this year.  The Hawkeyes will also be breaking in a new starter at QB with James Vandenberg, who replaces Ricky Stanzi.  All the more reason to run the ball with Coker.  Coker was a beast late last year rushing for over 200 yards in the Hawkeyes Insight Bowl victory over Missouri.
4. Russell Wilson, Wisconsin: Yeah I know, he’s not a rookie after starting for NC State, but he hasn’t taken a snap in the B1G.  While Wilson will have to learn a new offense, don’t expect him to struggle early or ever this year.  Wilson is a minor league baseball player and a multi-year starter in the ACC.  I don’t think he will have too much trouble picking up the vanilla (but explosive) Wisconsin offense. 
5. Jaamal Berry, Ohio State: What would a rookie head coach love to do?  Hand the ball off to a really good running back.  Berry will become just that for the Buckeyes.  He averaged over 8 yards per carry in limited duty last year and should be able to crack 1,000 yards rushing without breaking a sweat.  The mediocre Boom Herron will miss the first five games of the season due to suspension, which will benefit the Buckeyes offense and Jamaal Berry, who will take the starting tailback job and never look back.