B1G Predictions: Week 1

Minnesota 31, UNLV 17:
For the first time ever in the Jerry Kill era the Gophers will top 30 points.  This will be a close game at halftime before the Minnesota offensive line imposes their will on a small UNLV defensive front in the second half.  The Gophers rush for over 250 yards and get a punt return touchdown from freshman Jamel Harbison. 

Boise State 24, Michigan State 21:
Andrew Maxwell struggles in his first start for the Spartans against a better than advertised Boise State defense.  A staunch Michigan State defense and LeVeon Bell keep Sparty in the game, but Boise quarterback Joe Southwick picks apart the MSU secondary in the 4th quarter on a 10 play 82 yard touchdown drive to seal the victory for the Broncos. 

Northwestern 23, Syracuse 21:
Kain Colter gashes the Syracuse defense for 157 yards rushing and the Cats get a big stop defensively in the 4th quarter to preserve a well-earned non-conference road victory in the Carrier Dome. 

Penn State 30, Ohio U 13:
The Nittany Lions get off to a fast start behind an emotionally charged crowd and take a 21-0 lead in the first quarter and cruise from there.   Matt McGloin has his best game under center for PSU and Akeel Lynch shows great burst and vision from the running back position rushing for over 100 yards. 

Western Michigan 27, Illinois 20:
Alex Carder torches Illinois for 320 yards and 3 touchdowns.  Illinois looks like it lacks an identity on offense as both Nathan Scheelhaase and Reilly O’Toole split time at quarterback. 

Ohio State 38, Miami (OH) 3:
Urbanball begins with a shellacking of little in-state brother Miami (OH) in the Shoe.   Braxton Miller looks like Tim Tebow running the Meyer offense as the Buckeyes pile up over 500 yards of offense.

Iowa 31, Northern Illinois 27:
This might turn out to be the best game in week 1.  Northern Illinois is better than anyone outside of DeKalb, IL thinks and it will be interesting to see who runs the football for the Hawkeyes.  James Vandenberg and the Iowa receivers and tight ends will be able to hold their own, but for the Iowa offense to shine it must have a legitimate tailback emerge this year at some point.   Freshman Greg Garmon rushes for over 100 yards for the Hawkeyes and proves to be the difference maker in the opener at Soldier Field in Chicago.

Purdue 34, Eastern Kentucky 16:
I would rather watch a marathon of Dora the Explorer on Nick Jr. than this game.

Nebraska 28, Southern Miss 17: Taylor Martinez reverts to his form of 2010 (pre injury) and the black shirt defense clamps down on a decent Southern Miss offense. 

Wisconsin 41, Northern Iowa 6:
The Badgers rush for over 400 yards as Maryland transfer Danny O’Brien just hands off and tries to stay out of the way.   James White and Melvin Gordon look good running the ball for the Badgers in the second half. 

Indiana 42, Indiana State 24:
The Indiana tailbacks shake loose in this game as the Hoosiers rush for over 300 yards in a yawner over the in-state FCS Sycamores.  

Alabama 21, Michigan 13:
Bama will struggle early offensively, but will find a rhythm in the second half as quarterback A.J. McCarron will throw 2 second half touchdown passes.  Denard Robinson is swallowed whole by a big, physical, and fast Crimson Tide defense. 

B1G Power Rankings: Week 1

1. Ohio State: The Braxton Miller and Urban Meyer relationship will work out beautifully!  The Buckeyes will be super motivated to play Michigan at the end of the year because it will be their bowl game.  Urban starts off 1-0 in the biggest rivalry in college football.

2. Wisconsin: The Badgers have what they are used to under center in the mediocre Danny O'Brien, however that is just fine by the Badgers who will use a punishing ground attack and an opportunistic defense to reach their third consecutive Rose Bowl.

3. Michigan: Denard Robinson will get beat up this year and an extremely difficult schedule will result in a worse record than last year.

4. Nebraska: Taylor Martinez was quoted as saying he wants to complete 75% of his passes this year.  In other news I would like to date Kate Upton.  Neither one is happening.

5. Michigan State: Andrew Maxwell takes over for 37 year starter Kirk Cousins.  The Spartans may have their best defense ever!  LeVeon Bell is an absolute beast at the tailback position.

6. Iowa: James Vandenberg will throw for a bazillion yards this year, but the Hawkeyes need to find a tailback to balance the offense.

7. Northwestern: Cain Colter is a remarkable athlete and will flourish in the NU offense.  The defense on the otherhand is a complete sieve.

8. Penn State: Matt McGloin will have a very respectable year at QB and the Nittany Lions will scrap their way to a very respectable season given the circumstances.

9. Minnesota: The Gophers are young and thin at almost every position with the exception of linebacker.  This program is probably 2 years away from a major breakthrough.

10. Illinois: Todd Beckman is just annoying, that's all I've got.

11. Indiana: The Hoosiers may actually put up some points this year, but they won't be able to stop a turtle in motor oil.

12. Purdue: The most O-V-E-R-R-A-T-E-D team in the conference.  To be successful in major college football you need to have a good coach and a good quarterback.  The Boilermakers have Danny Hope and Caleb Turbush... Ick.

Schedule Analysis: Northwestern

Games in which Northwestern will be heavily favored:
South Dakota
Indiana
Illinois

Games in which Northwestern will be a heavy underdog:
@Michigan
@Michigan State

Favorable matchup games:
@Syracuse
Vanderbilt
Boston College
@Penn State
Iowa

Unfavorable matchup games:
@Minnesota
Nebraska

Summary:
The Cats will have a shot to win nearly every game on their schedule.  If you take away the road trips to the state of Michigan they have not only a shot to win all those other games, but they could be favored in all or most.  I think the schedule sets up perfectly for Pat Fitzgerald to have his best season yet in what I believe is a slightly overrated Big Ten Conference in 2012.

Prediction:
8-4

Schedule Analysis: Michigan

Games in which Michigan will be heavily favored:
Air Force
UMass
Illinois
@Minnesota
@Purdue
Northwestern

Games in which Michigan will be a heavy underdog:
Alabama

Favorable matchup games:
@Notre Dame
Michigan State
Iowa

Unfavorable matchup games:
@Nebraska
@Ohio State

Summary:
The Wolverines get big bad Bama right out of the gate.  No easy task, no doubt.  In fact the Wolverines have a much more difficult schedule this year than they had last year.  They have trips to South Bend, Lincoln, and Columbus.  The Wolverines will be a better team this year in my opinion, but their record won't be.

Prediction:
9-3

Schedule Analysis: Michigan State

Games in which Michigan State will be heavily favored:

@Central Michigan

Eastern Michigan

@Indiana

Games in which Michigan State will be a heavy underdog:

None

Favorable matchup games:

Boise State

Notre Dame

Iowa

Nebraska

Northwestern

@Minnesota

Unfavorable matchup games:

Ohio State

@Michigan

@Wisconsin

Summary:

Michigan State has a tough test right out of the shoot with a primetime matchup on Friday night against Boise State at home.  The Broncos play extremely well on the road out of conference.  In fact, Boise’s record in non-conference road games the last two years is 7-0.  Yes, that’s right 7-0!  It should be mentioned that the Georgia game in Atlanta last year and the Virginia Tech game in DC back in 2010 were technically “neutral site” games, but come on who are we kidding?  Those were home games for Georgia and Virginia Tech respectively and the Broncos flat took care of business.  If I were a Michigan State fan I would be terrified of playing Boise State in the opener. 

The B1G slate is much easier this year for MSU than it was last year.  They get Iowa, Nebraska, and Ohio State at home this year, but they still must travel to Michigan and Wisconsin and the road game at Minnesota won’t be a cake walk either.  I think Minnesota is going to be the most improved team in the conference by seasons end. 

Michigan State lost a ton of offensive personnel and must also replace their 3 year starting quarterback and unquestioned leader in Kirk Cousins.  Cousins was voted a team captain his sophomore year.   Andrew Maxwell is a smart kid and I am confident he will assume a leadership role right away, but he will experience his growing pains this year.  Michigan State will live and die this year by its defense and running game, led by stud tailback LeVeon Bell.

Prediction:

8-4

Schedule Analysis: Penn State

Games in which Penn State will be heavily favored:
Ohio
Temple
Indiana

Games in which Penn State will be a heavy underdog:
@Iowa
@Nebraska
Wisconsin
Ohio State

Favorable matchup games:
Navy
Northwestern

Unfavorable matchup games:
@Illinois
@Purdue
@Virginia

Before the NCAA dropped a nuclear bomb on Penn State a day before the sanctions were announced I tweeted how people shouldn't feel sorry for Bill O'Brien because he knew exactly what he was getting into when he accepted the job.

B1G Football Dude ‏@B1Gfootballdude

For those of you who feel bad for Bill O'Brien, don't. Remember, he agreed to take this job. #pennstate

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After seeing him interviewed I absolutely love the guy.  He doesn't make excuses.  In fact, Bill O'Brien has accepted more accountability for his program than anyone else at the institution and O'Brien had nothing to do with why Penn State is being penalized. 

Regarding football I think Bill O'Brien is the perfect man for the job, a no bull, head down, go about your business head coach.  Penn State will reflect it's head coach this year: workmanlike, lunch pail team, that won't lay over for anyone.  Penn State will be a tough out this year.   Penn State will benefit from a soft early schedule, but will run out of fuel by seasons end.  However, the Nitts won't get blown out much this year if at all.

Prediction: 6-6

Does Anyone Care in Dinkytown?

The year was 1990, the location was Madison, Wisconsin where the Wisconsin Badgers football team had just finished up a dreadful 1-10 season under first year coach Barry Alvarez.  Wisconsin had won just 10 games the past 5 seasons.  I wasn't a math major but that's 2 wins a season on average for the Badgers from 1986-1990. Things were bad for the Wisconsin football program, in fact the University of Wisconsin marching band was the main attraction on Saturdays at Camp Randall stadium, not the football team. Alvarez posted 5-6 records in years 2 and 3 before having a breakout year in 1993 leading the Badgers to a 10-1-1 record, a Big Ten Championship and a trip to the Rose Bowl on New Year's Day where they would knock off the UCLA Bruins.  From that day forward the University of Wisconsin became a Big Ten powerhouse, something no one in the country or for that matter even it's own state could have ever imagined. The Badgers have made 5 Rose Bowl appearances since 1993.  Now the Badgers sell their entire allotment of student season tickets in a 1/2 hour. 

Fast forward to 2012 in Minneapolis, MN where the Minnesota Gophers open camp coming off a 3-9 season in year 1 of the Jerry Kill era.  Year 2 promises to be better for the Gophers, dare we say 4-6 wins is expected?  So what year will Kill lead the Gophers to a B1G championship and a BCS bowl game will it be in year 3?  How about year 4 like Alvarez did at Wisconsin?  Or will that day never come for Kill and Minnesota?  If it doesn't you can forget about the Minnesota Gopher football team being relevant in the Twin Cities or even on their own campus where they have only sold 2,000 student season tickets.  Indiana, similar to Minnesota achievement wise in football has sold 12,000.  Let that resonate for a bit... Indiana, yes Indiana has sold 10,000 more student tickets than Minnesota for the 2012 season.  The Hoosiers couldn't even beat an FBS level team last year and are a basketball school, yet they have outpaced the Gophers in student season ticket sales by a long shot.  It has come to my attention that Indiana sold basketball and football tickets to the students as a package, but still...

Often times when Minnesota plays Wisconsin at home you will find a percentage of the student section (dare I say as high as 10-15%) decked out in red.  They are probably Wisconsin kids who chose to attend the University of Minnesota for the city and the degree, but are probably still Badger fans at heart.  Folks that simply shouldn't happen.  It is the University's job to create school pride and passion for sports, something the U has failed at big time.  The University of Minnesota offers arguably the finest stadium in the B1G if not the country in one of the biggest, hippest cities that houses a major research university.   So what's not to like right?  The product on the field that's what.  The Gophers haven't won a Big Ten championship in over 40 years and haven't gone to the Rose Bowl in over 50.  Apathy and condescending journalists are rampant and the University and it's football program has no one to blame but themselves.  Someone told me that whatever you want to be good at you will be good at. Why do you think Alabama is good at college football, the Yankees dominate MLB, and the Lakers the NBA?  Because they demand excellence, in fact maybe it's just because they give a shit.  The U simply hasn't given a shit, not it's students, not it's administrators, not it's fans, no one! 

It's hard to win when you don't have support and that is probably why so many candidates passed on the job back in 2010.  For the U to ever be a big attraction in this town they need a breakout season 10-12 wins and a BCS bowl bid and the only way they are ever going to get there is with the right people at the top (administrators/coaches) to change the pathetic culture of the program.  Joel Maturi and Bob Bruininks were too concerned with being "nice" and "fair".  Glen Mason came off as pompous and arrogant, and Tim Brewster came across as a blowhard.

Jerry Kill is a competitive guy who can't stand losing.  The new President, Eric Kaler who is on twitter always ends his tweets with #umnproud.  The new AD, Norwood Teague kept arguably the most sought after young basketball coach in the country at little old VCU.  Teague has a plan to upgrade the facilities immediately and that includes practice facilities for both the basketball and football teams.  Is this threesome the answer?  Damn if I know, but they give a shit and that's a pretty good start.

Schedule Analysis: Purdue

Games in which Purdue will be a heavy favorite:
Eastern Kentucky
Eastern Michigan
Marshall

Games in which Purdue will be a heavy underdog:
@Notre Dame
Michigan
Wisconsin
@Ohio State
@Iowa

Favorable matchup games:
Penn State
Indiana

Unfavorable matchup games:
@Minnesota
@Illinois

Summary:
Purdue has many returning starters, especially defensively.  However, outside of defensive tackle Kawann Short none of them are special.  This is about as average as a team gets and its head coach, Danny Hope is also average, however he does have the coolest mustache in college football.   Penn State and Indiana at home are probably the only B1G games the Boilermakers will be favored to win.  This will likely be Danny Hope's last season in West Lafayette.  This is the year Indiana finishes with a better record than Purdue.

Prediction:
4-8

Schedule Analysis: Ohio State

Games in which Ohio State will be heavily favored:

Miami (OH)

Central Florida

Cal

@UAB

@Indiana

Purdue

@Penn State

Illinois

Games in which Ohio State will be a heavy underdog:

None

Favorable matchup games:

Nebraska

Michigan

Unfavorable matchup games:

@Michigan State

@Wisconsin

Summary:

Vegas has set the over/under win total for the Buckeyes at 9.  If I were a gambler I would stuff a Brinks truck full of cash and drive it to Sin City to bet the over on the Buckeyes.  Urban Meyer seems extra motivated to reclaim his status as one of the nation’s elite coaches.  Ohio State isn’t going to hover around .500 like they did last year.  This team still has the best athletes in the conference, a rejuvenated coach, and a talented quarterback playing in the perfect system to suit his talents.   Outside of trips to Madison and East Lansing the schedule is relatively easy, at least by Big Ten standards.  The Leaders division looks like the MAC East.  Purdue, Illinois, Indiana, and now Penn State are below average teams and don’t think for a second that Meyer (aka The Pontiff) is going to take it easy on them.  I also don’t see Meyer taking an aw shucks approach to the Michigan game.  I anticipate him wanting to completely embarrass Brady Hoke and the maize and blue in The Shoe.  I definitely give the edge to Ohio State this year in that rivalry.   

Prediction: 10-2

Gopher Football 2012 Less Talk, More Action!

Something feels different in Dinkytown this summer.  Aside from the record heat and humidity there is something else in the air that Gophers fans aren’t used to.  For starters, there is continuity, both with the coaching staff and personnel.  The Gophers saw great participation in captains practices and summer workouts.  There were no bombastic proclamations of Big Ten championships or any statements that could be used as bulletin board material for other teams.  Even die hard Gopher fans have steered clear of excessive Kool-Aid consumption with tempered and realistic expectations for the season.  It’s like the Gophers are poised for doing instead of thinking.  Everyone seems to be on the same page, from the coaching staff, to the players, to the fans, and to the media.  Everyone is taking a cautiously optimistic approach to the season.   So what exactly does that mean….

Gophers offensive coordinator Matt Limegrover lost 118lbs this summer.  Limegrover did this under the radar.  He didn’t hold a press conference to gloat, in fact media members and players had to talk to him about it first before he would even open up.   Limegrover walked the walk this summer instead of talked the talk, and the 2012 Gophers hope to take after their coach when they tee it up in Las Vegas on August 30^th.   Head coach Jerry Kill also looks like he lost a bit of weight, however he wouldn’t let you know about it.  In fact, Jerry seems like he always wants to change the subject when a reporter asks him about his health.   Kill has been quoted as saying “I feel great!” and looks around the room for anyone that wants to ask him about football instead.  This Gopher team doesn’t want to draw attention to itself.  It makes them uncomfortable.  Instead they want to fly under the radar and let their play do the talking, kind of like their coaches.  

With Tim Brewster, or for that matter with Jim Wacker you would be thinking that Rashede Hageman is the next Ndamukong Suh and MarQueis Gray is the next RGIII.  Part of the issue with this program in the past was the over the top praise, hype, and publicity of its “stars”.   That hype was never warranted for past players and often times fans would be left disappointed in a particular player because of the unrealistic expectations set upon them.  However, the staff is tempering those expectations despite the obvious physical gifts of the players mentioned.   Again a little less talk and a lot more action is the goal.  

Just because this team seems to “get it” doesn’t mean they are going to have a breakout season and go to a major bowl game.  It simply means that everyone from the coaches, the players, and even the fans are on the same page.  Last year Kill was quoted as saying he wants to build the program from concrete not sand.  That means and I hate this term because I think it can be cliché and completely overused, but that means he needs to change the culture (my words, not Kill’s), which may be another reason why I like Kill so much.  Kill is not a cliché robot, he is brutally honest, at times to a fault.  Jerry Kill is a straight shooter and that is exactly what this program is looking for.   Gopher football 2012: less talk, more action!