Saturday, February 18, 2012

Twin Cities Sports Teams Stock Reports


Minnesota Vikings
The B1G football dude’s recommendation: sell
The Vikings tied a franchise record for losses in the 2011/12 season with 13, matched only by the Les Steckel coached team of 1984.  Leslie Frazier is going to get a second year to coach the Purple, but his leash will be short and if the 2012/13 season goes anything like last year he won’t last until Thanksgiving. 

Christian Ponder was a surprise pick at number 12 overall in last year’s draft, but regardless the Vikings hitched their wagon to Ponder and will give him a full season as the starter to prove that they didn’t reach drafting him as high as they did.   Ponder had an up and down rookie season with the Vikes, showing great promise at times and looking completely overmatched at others.  His 13TD/13INT ratio will have to improve dramatically.  Despite the fact that a lot of Vikings fans like Ponder he was one of the lowest rated quarterbacks in the league and his 54% completion percentage topped only Blaine Gabbert and Tim Tebow.  

This is a coach and qb league and the Vikings are stuck with Leslie Frazier and Christian Ponder.  Now maybe they will do a complete 180 from last year and prove they are worthy of being the coach and quarterback of the future, but I am skeptical.  First let’s start with Ponder, the second year pro from Florida State had an up and down career with the Seminoles.  Ponder often times struggled in big games down the stretch.  He was also injury prone throughout his career at FSU.  Ponder struggled with injuries and his decision making with the Vikings in year 1 as well.  He should get a pass being a rookie, but I have noticed a theme throughout his collegiate and professional career.  Ponder threw a late pick that cost the Vikings the game against the Broncos in December and was bailed out by Joe Webb on several occasions after putrid performances.  Frazier meanwhile is a great defensive coordinator and #2, but he doesn’t have what it takes to be a head coach in my opinion.  Frazier reminds me of Norv Turner and Wade Philips, really good coordinators, and really poor head coaches.

My take is this: in a division with Aaron Rodgers, Matthew Stafford, and Jay Cutler are you satisfied with Christian Ponder as your starting QB?  In my opinion the Vikings need to draft Baylor Quarterback Robert Griffin III.  RG3 has a much bigger upside and in this division you are going to need an upside all the way to the moon.

Minnesota Wild
The B1G football dude’s recommendation: sell
The Wild gave up early on Todd Richards, canning him after two up and down years.  Richards came to the Wild as an up and coming young coach.  Many in the league thought very highly of Richards after several years as the top assistant in San Jose.  A year ago Richards had the Wild in 6th place in the Western Conference and on pace to make the Stanley Cup playoffs, but a late collapse cost the young coach his job.  Richards was seen as an offensive minded coach who brought an up tempo style after the neutral zone trap years of Jaques Lemaire.  Fans quickly turned on Richards as the Wild struggled to score goals on a consistent basis.  What fans need to realize is this.  When you hire a chef with a reputation for cooking gourmet meals and you tell him that he has to make something with spam, leftover mac and cheese, and Oscar Meyer hot dogs, how do you think your meal is going to turn out.  The Wild’s problem last year and this year is they don’t have any goal scorers.  I liked the acquisitions of Danny Heatley and Devin Setoguchi, but they weren’t able to overcome injuries and a lack of depth along the front line.

Mike Yeo is a good, young head coach as was/is Todd Richards.  I just hope that the poor man’s Jerry Jones (Craig Leipold) doesn’t make another knee jerk decision and bail on Yeo after just one year.  Yeo should be given an opportunity to coach the Wild and grow with their young prospects.  However, aside from Finnish forward Mikael Granlund, the Wild has mostly dime a dozen guys and grinders.  The Wild needs more electricity in their lineup and I don’t see much in the young players that I have seen this year (Granlund is still in Finland).  This is a long term rebuilding project. 

Minnesota Twins
The B1G football dude’s recommendation: hold
The Minnesota Twins dominated the American League Central for a decade.  However, that string of domination came to a screeching halt last year as the Twins flirted with 100 losses.  Was it just a bump in the road or a sign of things to come?  I’m not really sure and that is why I am telling you to hold your Twins stock.  The health of former MVP’s Justin Morneau and Joe Mauer will be paramount to the Twins returning to their throne as kings of the central.  The wildly erratic Francisco Liriano will also have to become the consistently dominant pitcher he is capable of being, even though it should be noted that he hasn’t been dominant for a long stretch since undergoing Tommy John surgery after the 2006 season.  Liriano has been dominant for a month or so at a time, but he can’t put it together for a full season, which has been exasperating for Twins fans who know what his potential is.  For a staff that desperately needs a number one starter, Liriano’s re-emergence is another key to the Twins turning their fortunes around in 2012.

The steadying influence of current GM Terry Ryan will help immensely!  Ryan is just smart.  If you listen to the dude talk you get the feeling he knows his stuff.  Former GM Billy Smith was way over his skis.  He reminded me of soon to be former Minnesota AD Joel Maturi, a really nice guy who seems lost.  Smith and Maturi were little lost puppy dogs, who were eventually taken to the pound and euthanized.

Minnesota Gopher basketball
The B1G football dude’s recommendation: hold
Tubby Smith came to Minnesota with a lot of hype and excitement.  He took over a program that had become a lower echelon team in the BIG and made them immediately competitive and relevant elevating said program to a middle echelon BIG program.  Tubby has taken the Gophers to the post season in 3 of his 4 years at the U, two of which were NCAA tournament appearances. 

I posed this question on Twitter last week.  “Has Tubby Smith become the Glen Mason of Gopher coaches?  Fattening up on non-conference cupcakes, sub .500 BIG record, occasional big wins, and non-descript post season appearances.”  Tubby like Mason had success before he came to the U, winning a National Championship in his first year at Kentucky with mostly Rick Pitino’s players.  Mason had success at Kansas (by KU football standards). 

Tubby has put together athletic teams that can run and play defense, but can’t rebound or shoot to save their lives.  He has also had trouble hanging on to his elite recruits.  Royce White, Justin Cobbs, Devoe Joseph, and Colton Iverson are all no longer with the program, and we all know about the issues on and off the court for Trevor Mbakwe.  I think Tubby can field competitive teams year after year, but as a Gopher basketball fan you need to ask yourself this question.  What are you looking for in the program?  To be competitive, or to be BIG champs.  I think we are all in a wait and see mode with Tubby, but I do think the Gophers should extend him.  I think a 3 year extension should be sufficient.

Minnesota Gopher hockey
The B1G football dude’s recommendation: hold
The Star Tribune’s Patrick Reusse calls the Gophers the Yankees of college hockey and he is dead on accurate.  The Gophers don’t recruit they select.  I would say that it’s safe to say that 99% of kids that grow up playing hockey in Minnesota would jump at the chance to play for the Gophers if offered a scholarship.   The Gophers regularly have Top 5 recruiting classes. 

The Gophers have struggled over the last 4-5 years due in large part to the high amount of turnover in the program.  Most of the kids Lucia recruits are or will be NHL draft choices and many bolt after just a year or two with the program.  Kids like Nick Leddy, Erik Johnson, Kyle Okposo, and many others have bolted for the NHL before their eligibility has expired.

The Gophers will always be looked at as the program with the most resources of any program in the country.  Think Texas in football, with all the in state talent, high school programs, etc..  However, the Gophers will need to cut down on their turnover and maybe recruit kids that are willing to play for the program for 3-4 years.  It’s probably easier said than done, but a program of the Gophers statue should compete for national championships every year, period.  Head coach Don Lucia’s killer instinct needs to be questioned.  I am starting to wonder whether the guy is just mailing it in and is content with his two national championships that were won almost a decade ago.  I think the Gophers may be better off hiring a young, driven, hungry, type A head coach.  Lucia was just that when he arrived, but I am afraid he has become the lazy executive that is still milking the company for his accomplishments years ago and not trying to help the company in the future.  He is the guy at the corporation pulling in the big salary and the young guy below him is doing more work for half the salary.  I think the Gophs need the young driven guy.  Hey, maybe the Gophers can hire Todd Richards?!

Minnesota Timberwolves
The B1G football dude’s recommendation: buy
Rick Adelman is looked at as one of the best coaches in the NBA.  He was assigned the tall task of coaching a young team with no go-to scorer that has been looked at as one of the worst franchises in the NBA for the last 5 years or so.  It should be noted that the Timberwolves are swimming in lottery picks: Kevin Love, Wesley Johnson, Michael Beasley, Ricky Rubio, and Derrick Williams all come to mind.  Adelman has instantly taken a team that hasn’t eclipsed 20 wins the past two years and transformed them into a .500ish team that is being mentioned by some as a playoff contender.  Now the emergences of Ricky Rubio and Nikola Pekovic should be taken into account as well, but Adelman has the town abuzz about the Timberwolves, something that has been lacking around these parts since 2004. 

The Wolves still need a shooting guard and someone that can spot up and hit open shots.  I think the Wolves are just a 2 guard away from being a Western Conference playoff team.

Minnesota Gopher football
The B1G football dude’s recommendation: buy
If you were to conduct a random national survey and you posed the question “What do you think of the Minnesota Gopher football program?”, most people would probably say something along the lines of “they suck!”  If you are an investor or day trader you are always on the hunt for stocks that are undervalued and have a tremendous up-side.  The Gophers are a stock that is worth next to nothing right now and worst case scenario 3 years down the road is it remains a stock that is worth next to nothing.  Former Texas Tech and current Washington State head coach Mike Leach, who campaigned for the Gopher job opening a year ago said the same thing.  After Jerry Kill was hired he was on record saying that he likes a “challenge”.  The coach no doubt will have a challenge on his hands trying to turn around a program that hasn’t been relevant in nearly 50 years.  However, Jerry knows the upside is huge.

Is Jerry Kill the next Steve Jobs?  The late Apple CEO was an innovator, taking a niche computer company and evolving it into a company that has transformed the portable music player, cell phone, and laptop computer/tablet markets forever.   Jobs is the architect of a company that saw its stock rise from around $7.00 per share in October of 2002 to over $500 per share as of today.  In my opinion, and I will grant you that I am a Minnesota alumnus and season ticket holder, the Gophers have all the tools to become a relevant program not just in the B1G, but nationally.  They have the stadium, city, local business community, and now a University President to get the job done.  You can’t tell me that if Wisconsin and Iowa are relevant Minnesota can’t be.  That simply “shouldn’t” be true.

Kill can check off the first step on his list to turning the Gophers into a competitive program.  He locked down the borders of the state in the recruiting battle.   The Gophers top 4 in state recruiting targets in no particular order were: Mankato West QB Philip Nelson, Blue Earth OT Jonah Pirsig, Hopkins WR Andre McDonald, and St. Thomas OG Isaac (the Chef) Hayes.  Kill landed all four, now that’s what I call a Kill shot!