Wednesday, October 31, 2012

B1G Predictions: Week 10

Michigan 31, Minnesota 13:  The Gophers go back to scoring 13 points in B1G games against the best defense they have faced all year.  The weather forecast is supposed to be wet and cold on Saturday afternoon, which will play into the favor of Denard Robinson’s legs.  If Robinson had a leg injury I would be tempted to pick a closer score and maybe even predict the Gophers to pull off an upset, but since it’s a hand injury the Wolverines should win comfortably.  Robinson won’t have to throw it much in this game.  Minnesota’s defensive weakness is their run defense and their strength is their pass defense.  Look for a heavy dosage of Robinson on the ground and a comfortable win for the Wolverines. 

Ohio State 55, Illinois 17: If the Illini can’t stop IU or Arizona State just imagine the problems they will have with Braxton Miller and company.  This game will be over by halftime.  Illinois has no idea what they are doing or even what they want to do offensively.  The lack of identity on offense has to be a real concern to Illinois fans.  A lack of identity on that side of the ball indicates a coach who is unsure of himself (see Tim Brewster).  I don’t think the Tim Beckman era is going to end well at Illinois, that’s just a hunch.

Penn State 28, Purdue 23:  I think the Boilermakers will show up and play inspired football for their coach Danny Hope.  If they don’t I think he’s gone after this week.  Hope is on life support right now.   Purdue’s secondary absolutely sucks!  They got torched by Minnesota true freshman quarterback Philip Nelson last week, who was making only his second start.  Nelson threw for nearly 250 yards and 3 touchdowns in the first half and at one point completed 11 consecutive passes.  Matt McGloin will do equal damage this week, but I expect the Purdue offense to come to life a bit under Robert Marve making this an interesting game. 

Michigan State 24, Nebraska 20: I have gone back and forth on this game all week.  Do I pick the hot team coming off an emotional win at home or do I pick the team that has lost a ton of close games coming off an emotional win on the road?  I am going with Sparty because the Huskers have been a bad road team the last few years and I think Michigan State is better than their record indicates.  LeVeon Bell continues to churn out yards and Andrew Maxwell building off the confidence he gained last week in Madison connects on several key third down throws, meanwhile the Spartans D completely shuts down the Huskers passing game forcing them to become a one dimensional offense.  A Dan Conroy field goal at the buzzer wins it for Sparty keeping the Legends Division race really interesting.  Michigan, Michigan State, Nebraska, and Northwestern all have a chance to go to Indy after week 10. 

Indiana 28, Iowa 27:  I can’t figure out Iowa.  They lose to Central Michigan, then smash Minnesota, then beat Michigan State on the road, and follow that up with back to back embarrassing losses to Penn State and Northwestern.   Yep, that seems to make perfect sense!  The Hawkeyes could win a close one in Bloomington, blow out the Hoosiers, lose a close one or get blown out, nothing would surprise me.  I like the direction IU is headed under Kevin Wilson, and I hate the direction Iowa is headed, so I will go with the Hoosiers.  I also don’t like the way the Iowa defense matches up with IU’s offense.  I think this is a real bad matchup for Iowa.  It should be noted that my confidence level in picking this game on a scale of 1-10 (1 being low and 10 being high) is about a .05.  

Last Week: 4-2, Overall: 59-15 (.797)

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