Saturday, June 11, 2011

B1G schedule analysis - Michigan

Games in which Michigan will be heavily favored:
Western Michigan
Eastern Michigan
Purdue

Games in which Michigan will be a heavy underdog:
@Michigan State
@Iowa

Favorable match-up games:
San Diego State
Minnesota

Unfavorable match-up games:
Notre Dame
@Northwestern
@Illinois
Nebraska
Ohio State

Summary:
Michigan will have a successful, experienced NFL coordinator in Greg Mattison taking over the defense this fall.  Mattison, who resigned as the Defensive Coordinator for the NFL's Baltimore Ravens, will have his work cut out for him.  He will take over a defense that finished last in virtually every category in the Big Ten in 2010.  Former Michigan head coach Rich Rodriguez recruited small defensive players that had academic and health issues.  Michigan's defense last year was to be quite honest - atrocious.  Mattison will easily have the biggest coaching challenge of his career. 

Brady Hoke will take over the reigns as Head Coach for the Wolverines after a bunch of so-so years with Ball State and one great year.  Hoke had a rough start at San Diego State going 4-8 in year one, followed by a remarkable turnaround in year two, going 9-4 and leading the Aztecs to their first bowl game since 1998.  Hoke has Michigan ties, being a defensive assistant for the Wolverines from 1995-2002 coaching mostly the defensive line.

Michigan's offense was one of the best in the country last year racking up pinball stats, with Richrod's wide open, zone read spread offense.  Denard Robinson ran into injury problems as the season progressed with such a heavy workload.  Robinson, who is a small qb took quite a bit of punishment and Michigan's offense wasn't nearly as strong down the stretch as it was early in the season.  Robinson's numbers will go way down this year running more of a balanced pro-style offense under Brady Hoke, but the offense will still be one of the most dangerous in the league.

The schedule is... well it's brutal for the Wolverines.  While the B1G may not have a national championship contender, the one thing the league does have is tremendous balance.  Only Indiana and Purdue look to be complete pushovers and Indiana isn't on the schedule.  After the Wolverines play their little directional brothers (Eastern and Western Michigan) in their own back yard, it gets excruciating from there.  They play what looks to be the best Notre Dame team in maybe the last 6 years.  Their B1G schedule is really difficult, outside of the Purdue and Minnesota games at home, the Wolverines may be underdogs in the rest of their match-ups.  I will give the Wolverines the benefit of the doubt and say they eek out 6 wins to become bowl eligible, but it won't be easy or pretty.

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